Preview of Betting on the UCL Final: Odds and Tips for Arsenal vs PSG

(AsiaGameHub) –   Arsenal and PSG will meet in the UEFA Champions League final this weekend, the premier event in European soccer. Our betting preview analyzes the odds and provides tips ahead of the fixture.

PSG are the reigning champions after defeating Inter Milan decisively 5-0 in last year’s final. Arsenal are appearing in their first final since 2006, when they were beaten by Barcelona.

The London side has already secured the Premier League title, lifting the English league for the first time since 2004. Having ended that long wait, they will be more confident of achieving a double this weekend. Arsenal have never won the UCL trophy; their sole European success was the now-defunct Cup Winners’ Cup in 1994.

Who Are The Bookies Favoring?

PSG are favored to claim a second consecutive title at odds of around -145. Arsenal are offered at approximately +210. In the UCL era, only Real Madrid has managed to retain the trophy, winning three straight between 2016 and 2018.

PSG overcame Arsenal in both legs of last season’s semi-final on their way to the title, but Arsenal have raised their level this season and appear a stronger challenge.

The French club is priced at +130 to win after 90 minutes, which looks a more appealing bet than the -145 on them to lift the trophy. Finals have not finished level in the last nine seasons, yet we see little to choose between the sides, so we will steer clear of the moneyline.

Back Against Goals

A stronger option appears to be backing against goals. PSG were impressive in last year’s final, thrashing Inter Milan by a record 5-0. Typically, however, finals are tight contests, and this Arsenal side has built its success on a dependable defense.

With David Raya in goal, Arsenal have recorded the most clean sheets in the EPL over the past three seasons, including 19 during their title-winning campaign this year.

PSG have also been less prolific this term. They claimed the French title last year while scoring 92 goals, but managed only 78 this season. Ousmane Dembele won the Ballon d’Or last year and led the team with 35 goals across all competitions. This year, however, he has just 18.

Under 2.5 goals could be the play at odds of -125. That outcome has occurred in three of Arsenal’s last four matches, and likewise for PSG. In fact, only the end-of-season dead rubbers featured more goals, and only just, with 2-1 scorelines in each.

In the last eight seasons, aside from last year’s anomaly, only one other final has produced more than 2.5 goals. That required goalkeeping errors from Liverpool keeper Loris Karius to give Real Madrid a 3-1 win in 2018.

Best Bet: Under 2.5 Goals -125 (DraftKings)

Goalscorer Odds

Arsenal have several threats in the box, with Victor Gyokeres leading their scoring charts. The Swede is +700 to open the scoring and +260 to find the net at any time.

However, he may not start as Kai Havertz has often been preferred since returning from injury. Havertz scored the winner in the UCL final for Chelsea in 2021 and looks a stronger option than Gyokeres at odds of +800 to score first and +300 anytime.

Expecting a tight contest, it may come down to set pieces to break the deadlock. Arsenal scored 19 goals from corners this campaign, the most in a single Premier League season.

Arsenal last opened the scoring from a set piece in the 2006 final, when Sol Campbell scored. We are again looking at defenders for value. Dutch defender Jurrien Timber netted three times this season, though he faces a race for fitness to feature in the final.

Brazilian defender Gabriel has arguably been Arsenal’s standout performer in recent seasons. He is dominant in the air in both boxes and a threat from set pieces. Like Timber, he scored three times in the league, as well as once in the UCL.

At odds of +3000 to score first, he could be a worthwhile long shot to put Arsenal ahead, or +1700 to score anytime.

Best Bet: Gabriel To Score First +3000 (DraftKings)

Arsenal Will Need To Get Physical

Linked to our play on Arsenal to score from a set piece, we expect PSG to control possession. The French club has averaged 63.4% possession in the UCL this season, well above Arsenal’s 52.6%.

Arsenal will have to compete physically to win the ball back, so backing key defensive figures to make decisive tackles could be astute.

Declan Rice is Arsenal’s midfield general and has averaged 1.83 tackles per match this season. In most of those matches, Arsenal have had the upper hand, so we would expect the England midfielder to make at least three tackles against PSG, priced at +155.

Best Bet: Declan Rice +3 tackles +155 (DraftKings)

After the match, attention will turn to the World Cup. Check back for more previews as the tournament approaches kick-off on June 11.